How it works?
BetNuts covers over +850 leagues and major football cups including: scores, league standings, match events, team line-ups, pre-matches odds, statistics and match predictions.
BetNuts is ideal for statistics, fantasy football and betting market research.
How are predictions calculated?
Our predictions allow you to get a prediction on each of the upcoming matches, including current day and next.
We use a combination of 6 different algorithms, taking into account the shape of the teams, previous matches, recency, derived player/team skill, league statistics, Poisson distribution and many other datapoints.
BetNuts does not use the bookies odds to make match predictions.
Current prediction performance is published daily, 7-day and 30-day rolling period.
Disclaimer: Our predictions do not imply guarantees of any kind. If you place a bet based on our recommendation, it is at your own personal risk.
TrueOdds
How can a bookmaker’s odds represent the true probability if it contains a margin?
A bookies' margin is effectively a commission they earn for the effort to offer the betting market to customers in the first place. Instead of offering fair odds, they reduce them a little bit to make them unfair. If the bookmaker manages to balance their customers’ money in the right way, then regardless of the match outcome, they will make a little profit. The size of their margin dictates the size of their expected profit.
It is well documented that in sports where there are many favourites and underdogs, underdogs tend to be priced disproportionately shorter than favourites relative to their true chances of winning. The reasons for this are complex (for example the biased behaviour of bettors and the risk aversion of bookmakers protecting against variance), but it means that when bookmakers apply their margin, they place more weight on the underdogs than the favourites. This is called the favourite–longshot bias.
Wisdom of the Crowd works by getting a large number and variety of people to predict an outcome for a certain scenario. The theory dictates that the participants will over and underestimate outcomes in approximately equal measure, leaving the average of their predictions as close to perfect.
While this method cannot guarantee that you will guess the exact number, in most cases your guess should be at least somewhat close to the actual outcome. Punters willing to do the necessary research can position themselves to enjoy greater value by recognising when the crowd is lacking wisdom and reacting accordingly.
TrueOdds presented on BetNuts is based on a "Margin Proportional to Odds" algo that is able to expose the underlying margin of the bookie in question and present users with Wisdom of the Crowd, i.e. without margin baked in. Finding disparities between market odds and TrueOdds may expose value bets - where you have an edge.
